It looks like one major story line coming out of Iowa will be the role negative ads played in bringing down former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
In early December, Gingrich led in Iowa, with about 30 percent in the polls. By the start of the New Year, his support had dropped by 15 percentage points. During those three weeks, there have been an unprecedented number of negative ads aired against him in the Hawkeye State. There seems a clear and casual connection between these two sets of facts. But let me offer a cautionary note.
Continue ReadingConsider, in early December, Gingrich was at 37 percent nationally in the Gallup Tracking Poll. The latest Gallup numbers at the end of December have him at 24 percent ? a drop of 13 percentage points.
His declining support nationally is similar to his dive in Iowa. Yet the negative ads aired only in Iowa. This raises serious doubts that they caused Gingrich?s fall from grace in the Gallup Tracking Poll.
It is possible that these ads did cause his drop in the Iowa polls. But let me offer a different explanation. The negative ads may not have been a cause of his decline in numbers, but a symptom of his many problems as a candidate for president.
When Gingrich became a serious contender near the end of November, a national conversation began about the former speaker. That discussion was not kind to him.
True, Gingrich has a lot of baggage[[LINK TO BILL SCHNEIDER STORY ON GINGRICH]]. But many voters had instead focused on his much-praised performance in the GOP debates, and the favorable press he received after. There was also substantial unhappiness with the other contenders.
Once Gingrich became a credible candidate, however, the media began to scrutinize him more carefully. The resulting stories did not paint a favorable portrait. The bottom line is that Gingrich?s checkered record ? not the attack ads ? drove his decline in the polls.
Perhaps Gingrich?s support has now stabilized. He could finish in the top three Iowa. But if he finishes below this, it could fuel this hasty and ill-conceived discussion about the power of negative ads.
The real power is in the nominating process ? which is set up to vet all serious candidates. Gingrich essentially got a free ride until early December. But once it looked like he might be able to win Iowa ? and perhaps the nomination ? the bright lights of the news media focused on him.
This aspect of our nominating system alsosystem also brought down Herman Cain. Rick Santorum may be next in line ? assuming he finishes as well in Iowa as many predict.
This could be one reason that Mitt Romney continues to look like the best bet for the GOP nod. He has faced the bright lights before. And he has not cast as many dark shadows as his fellow competitors for the 2012 Republican nomination.
John G. Geer is Gertrude Conaway Vanderbilt professor of political science and also co-director of the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions at Vanderbilt University.
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